Quora Question: How Engaged is the United States in Egypt?

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Answer from Dan Holliday.

Very.
Securing stability in Egypt is simply a non-negotiable for the USA:

• Egypt controls the Suez, the world's most important canal.
• Egypt is critical to security and peace with Israel.
• Egypt has a massive, soon to be 100 million people with about 85% of those being Muslim.
• It's been said that while Saudi Arabia is the heart of Islam, Egypt is the heart of Arab Culture. What starts in Egypt has massive blowback for all of the Arab world. 

Egypt and the USA need each other and the USA better make sure that Egypt feels both the pressure to reform and move forward while accepting our half of the partnership in helping Egypt move into the 21st century. I hope the USA keeps its eye on Egypt. There's too much at stake.

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Answer from Paul deHolczer.

The US is very engaged in Egypt. But that engagement is not as important for the USA as some would seem to believe. In fact, that engagement is based on mere conventional wisdom, and not based on a rational plan. Securing "stability" in Egypt is simply not as important for the USA as some believe it is. Securing "stability" in Egypt on terms that our leadership demands (thought to be favorable to America) is simply not as favorable to America as is commonly accepted. To the extent that stability in Egypt is important, the engagement of the US in Egypt may not be as stabilizing as some expect or think.

Dan does offer a good framework for my analysis which follows a realpolitik approach instead of some fantasy ideal which inevitably gives way to real (or really perceived) national interest when blood is on the line:

• Egypt controls the Suez, one of the world's most important canals. Canal tolls are a source of income for Egypt. If Egypt were to charge high tolls, it would become more economical to find other shipping routes or modalities which would mitigate the Canal's importance as a source of income for Egypt. If it did not generate income for Egypt, the Canal would simply be an expense for Egypt. No matter who controls Egypt, the ruler has no incentive to close the Canal or make it less attractive for shipping. Oh sure, it can be used for some leverage, but that leverage is finite and has clear boundaries. Other than the Canal, Egypt is not a major source of anything -- product or service -- to the USA. 
• Egypt is critical to security and peace with Israel. Well, yes and no. Over time, yes. At any particular time, not necessarily. For example, right now, no country near Israel is in any kind of shape to challenge Israel.  Syria is in a civil war, Jordan has made peace with Israel and is wrestling with refugees from Syria. Lebanon is dealing with refugees from Syria as well as active violence as a result of spillover from Syria. Iran is trying to overcome sanctions and finances a proxy cold/hot war with Israel but has no territorial design on Israel or desire to wage a "hot" war on Israel. Iraq is rebuilding from the US intervention and wrestling with a nascent civil war. Egypt is facing critical domestic unrest and neither equipped not motivated to attack Israel. So, how is Egypt critical to security and peace with Israel right now? (It isn't). 
• But even if and when Egypt is critical to security and peace with Israel, it does not necessarily follow that Egypt is therefore critical to security and peace with the USA. So, is Egypt critical to the peace and security of the US? Not particularly. The US gives a lot of aid to Egypt. Why? Because we love Egyptians? Because we love Muslims? Because of the Canal? No. Because, about 1980, the US made a deal with Egypt. Carter brokered a deal for peace between Israel and Egypt and the payoff for Egypt was US aid to Egypt. The US pays Egypt to not attack Israel and to keep peace with Israel. And Egypt has kept that bargain -- even to the extent of closing smuggling tunnels from Egypt to Gaza and even to the extent of killing Muslim extremists in the Sinai. That bargain has been respected and approved by every President and Congress since Carter -- even the conservative Republican Presidents and Congresses. Why? Why does the US finance this peace (or pay this blackmail on behalf of Israel)? For several reasons. Israel is a reality. It exists. It is not going away. Not now, not ever, not as long as it has nuclear weapons. Every country in the Middle East and elsewhere knows this -- especially Iran. And Iran has no interest now or ever in experiencing a retaliatory nuclear attack from Israel. It did not lose millions of Iranians fighting Iraq for its existence just to flush its existence away in an unprofitable, suicidal nuclear exchange with Israel -- no matter what loud-mouth demagogues say in Tehran to distract the Iranian people from their own problems. (Oh, and the hypothetical nuclear "suitcase" bomb provided by Iran is paranoid fantasy. First, no one has made a "suitcase" nuclear bomb. Second, every nuclear explosion leaves atmospheric residue which can be sampled and traced and sourced. So, if Iran provided the necessary nuclear material for a "suitcase" bomb, it could not expect that Israel would not retaliate because of Iran's "plausible deniability." Plausible deniability has never stopped Israel from retaliating. Ever. And, Israel's nuclear weapons are -- at least partially -- deployed on sophisticated German-built submarines and would survive a first strike. And, a nuclear attack on Israel would kill many Muslims and obliterate many Muslim holy sites. And, finally, there are only about seven million Jews in Israel so it is not as though Iran would settle the "Jewish Question" with any finality.) 
• Yes, Egypt has a massive, soon to be 100 million people with about 85% of those being Muslim. So what? There are over a billion Muslims in the world and only a statistically insignificant number of those are involved in terrorism.
• It's been said that while Saudi Arabia is the heart of Islam, Egypt is the heart of Arab Culture. What starts in Egypt has massive blowback for all of the Arab world. -- Which is why it would be better for the USA to sponsor economic prosperity in Egypt as a way to further stability.

Egypt and the USA can help each other. The USA can be a source for stability in Egypt and Egypt can be a source for stability in the Middle East and Arab world. Giving Egypt weapons and propping up undemocratic dictators in Egypt is not the way to make Egypt a source for stability, however. We have known for over a decade that there are too many unemployed and underemployed people in Egypt. If we want Egypt to be stable, we need to help the ECONOMY of Egypt. People who have something to lose -- jobs, homes, families -- will work for stability. The Muslim extremists have traction because the old despotic institutions are not responsive to the needs of the people. That is exactly why the USSR imploded.

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